Monthly Archives: March 2017

Cooperation in the Future of East Asian Security (April 12 TAI Seminar)


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The Asia Institute


The Tomorrow



Wed, April 12, 2017

5-6 PM



Cooperation in the Future of East Asian Security

How the United States can work together with Korea, Japan & China


Opening Remarks:

Rei-Kyung Lee


The Tomorrow


Emanuel Pastreich


The Asia Institute



Lee Jong-heon 

Deputy Secretary General

Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat 


Although the media is full of reports about increasing tensions in East Asia, the rapid development of technology and the impact of climate change is such that there is increasingly a need for global cooperation in security especially in the fields of non-traditional security. This seminar brings together a group of experts and world citizens to discuss how the United States and Korea can cooperate with China and Japan to respond to new security challenges such as cyber attacks, drones, organized crime, immigration challenges, spreading deserts, and other risks related to the onset of climate change. The seminar will also touch on the possible uses for an East Asian arms control treaty and other general agreements on emerging technologies.  

Sookmyung Women’s University

Centennial Hall








“한국 국정원 개혁을 위한 10가지 원칙” 중앙일보 2017년 3월 15일


“한국 국정원 개혁을 위한 10가지 원칙”

2017년 3월 15일

임마누엘 페스트라이쉬



헌법재판소를 불법 사찰했다는 루머가 국가정보원을 다시 스포트라이트 속으로 밀어 넣었다.

이번에는 정보기관 개혁이 정쟁거리나 선정적인 기사거리가 아니라 국가안보 주제로 부상할 수 있다. 우리는 정보기관이 믿을 만하고 정확한 정보를 입법자들과 시민에게 제공하도록 만들 방안을 대승적으로 살펴야 한다. ‘가짜 뉴스’ 같은 왜곡된 정보가 판치는 인터넷 정글의 시대에 정책 안정성을 확보하고 선정주의적 매체에 대한 관리들의 의존도를 줄이려면 더더욱 정확하고 객관적인 정보 출처가 필요하다.

쉽지 않은 개혁을 위한 원칙이 몇 가지 있다. 첫째, 최고 인재들이 당장의 정치적인 이득보다는 실제 도전에 맞서야 한다. 미국은 9•11 테러 이후 막대한 자금을 정보 분야에 쏟아부어 획기적 발전을 거두는가 싶더니 이내 질적인 저하가 발생했다. 정보분석의 핵심인 ‘인간’이 등한시됐다. 정치권의 눈을 사로잡은 것은 수십억 달러 프로젝트에 포함된 컴퓨터와 인공위성이었다. 컴퓨터 기술력도 중요하지만 한국은 컴퓨터가 우리를 미혹하도록 방치하면 안 된다.

둘째, 경제적•기술적 변화가 우리나라를 어떻게 변용시키는지를 역사성 있는 통찰력으로 파악하는 분석가들이 필요하다. 데이터 분석으로 세계 추세에 대한 통찰을 제시할 수 있는 사람이 많이 필요하다. 그들은 탄탄한 인문학•문학•역사•철학 지식으로 무장해야 한다. 쓸모 있는 정보는 의미 있는 정보다. 숨 가쁜 기술 발전이 사회의 본질을 바꾸고 있다. 정적(靜的) 모델을 탈피하고 미래학 관점을 더 많이 도입해야 한다. Read more of this post



2017年 3.月 15日






在推行艰难的改革方面,有这么几条原则。第一,最顶级人才当前要去克服的是现实挑战,而非眼前的政治利害冲突。美国在9·11恐袭之后向情报部门投入了巨资,暂时获得重大进展,结果却未取得良好成效。作为情报分析的核心——“人才”受到了忽视,而受到政界重视的是用于几十亿美元项目中的电脑和人造卫星。电脑技术固然重要,但韩国不能过于迷信电脑而误入歧途。 Read more of this post

「韓国国家情報院改革のための10つの原則」 中央日報 2017年 3.月 15日”



2017年 3.月 15日”

エマニュエル パストリッチ




容易ではない改革のための原則がいくつかある。1つ目、最高の人材が当面の政治的利益よりも実際の挑戦に立ち向かうべきだ。米国は、9・11テロ以降、莫大な資金を情報分野に注ぎ込んで画期的な発展を収めるかのように見えたが、間もなく質的な低下が発生した。情報分析の核心である「人間」が軽視された。政界の目を引きつけたのは数十億ドルのプロジェクトに含まれたコンピュータと人工衛星だった。コンピュータ技術力も重要だが、韓国はコンピュータが人間を惑わすがままにしておいてはいけない。 Read more of this post

“Has the Conservative Party in South Korea Lost its Grip on Power?” Emanuel @ The Real News

The Real News

March 16, 2017

“Has the Conservative Party in South Korea Lost its Grip on Power?”


Jaisal Noor Interviews

Emanuel Pastreich


South Korea Conservatives


South Korea is continuing to feel the aftershocks of the impeachment and ouster of its conservative president, which followed months of protest after she was implicated in corruption. On Wednesday, South Korea’s prosecutor summoned former conservative President Park for questioning in the country’s far-reaching bribery scandal.

All this comes at a time when tensions are escalating between North and South Korea and the United States. South Korea, under pressure from the U.S., agreed to deploy the controversial THAAD missile defense system and is carrying out joint operations, which includes hundreds of thousands of troops with the United States. This prompted Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Ye to question, quote, “If the two sides — referring to the U.S. and North Korea — are really ready for a head-on collision.”

A snap election must be held in two months and the Liberal Party is highly favored. That said, it’s still unknown what other factors may play into the process.


INTER: Describe what the scene is right now, because on the one hand, you have domestic instability in South Korea, there’s going to be a new president elected within two months. At the same time, things are… some have described it as the worst situation between North Korea and the United States and South Korea in some time now. What does it feel like to be there? Describe the mood and the scene there.

EMANUEL PASTREICH: Well, I think, of course, the protests have died down and people are back to work. So, it is normal in that respect. However, these two aspects, both the increasing tensions with North Korea, and also combined with U.S. relations with China, which have of course become much worse under the Trump administration. And China has responded by limiting economic business interactions with South Korea, which has had a tremendous impact on the economy. You can see the economy, I think, is being seriously affected now. So, I think there’s a lot of anxiety and concern about what will happen.

There is a little bit of hope that a new president, and may be the end of the 10-year Conservative presidencies in a row, that this might bring some new opportunities. But I think over all, its overshadowed by a certain degree of angst and foreboding concerning the future particularly of the Korean Peninsula, but also that as the Trump administration is increasingly had to take some more bellicose view of China. And has downplayed, I think, the previous efforts to engage and encourage cooperation, that there are deep, deep worries.

INTER: And so, what party does this favor, this instability, favor? Because we’ve seen in many elections around the world instability leads to the rise of the right. And, of course, the right seems to be quite discredited now, although, you know, supporters of Park remain steadfast.

So, I want to ask you: what could the larger geopolitical implications be if there is a liberal or progressive candidate that wins the election coming up?

EMANUEL PASTREICH: Right. Well, Korea, I think, is somewhat different from the United… well, I wouldn’t say it’s different fundamentally, but that there hasn’t been the rise of a charismatic right wing crypto-populist candidate in Korea yet. We don’t see anyone like that. I think Korea as a whole has undergone a very serious issue of superannuated society. One of the most rapidly aging societies in the world, and that support for President Park now – or former President Park is really limited, and primarily with people in their say, over 60, who remember how her father, President Pak Chong-hee, who was a very authoritarian and also charismatic political leader built Korea up, that there’s a certain nostalgia for that.

But I think the odds of a Conservative win — the parties, by the way, in Korea, change rapidly. It’s not like the United States, where we’ve had Republican and Democrats for the last 130 years. But rather… or more – but rather, depending on the election, people will make out new names. But the politicians don’t change. The conservative side seems unlikely to win, but there is a scenario, because there are two large parties. There’s the People’s Party of Ahn Cheol-soo, and then there’s the Minjoo, or Democratic Party, and if both parties run, both field candidates, and they both do well, you have a three-way split, there is an opportunity or a possibility that the conservatives might be able to win a third term.

INTER: And so, you know, to be clear, what would the impact be? What would the result be if there is a hot conflict between North and South Korea? Because we’ve seen these rising tensions — the North Korean missile tests, which are happening. Now there are these joint operations that are happening between South Korea and the U.S. Hundreds of thousands of troops are taking part in that. So, if there is a hot conflict, even with this missile defense system they’re testing now, from what I’ve read it’s only about 50% effective.

So, just for our viewers to understand, what would that impact be?

EMANUEL PASTREICH: Well, I think people are more concerned about it now than they have been previously, in part because the Trump administration is both inexperienced and, unfortunately, unpredictable. Being unpredictable is a positive if you’re in pro-wrestling. But in international relations, and other fields, it’s much better to be predictable.

So, there is an increased risk. I think we don’t know, there have been incidents on the DMZ previously, right? With shootings or the use of artillery. And so, some small contingent incident is possible. But something larger, a bigger conflict, certainly cannot be ruled out. But actually, since we haven’t had one on an enormous scale since the Korean War, doesn’t mean it can’t happen, and there are forces that… I think what’s most worrisome is the United States used to have a much more stable policy.

But we’ve been invading a lot of countries, as you know, recently, so it’s sort of stable architecture of a divided North and South Korea, and a mutually economically engaged United States and China, and a relatively peaceful and not militarily ambitious Japan, that these sort of set factors for the last 50 years are all in play now. None of them are guaranteed as stable.

If there actually was a conflict — I’m not a fortune-teller, so I can’t tell you what would happen — but I think the danger that it would lead to some confrontation including China or that the United States’ response, like THAAD, for example, THAAD of course is not an active attack on North Korea or on China, but it’s very present. It’s perceived as a threatening decision by Beijing.

INTER: And, finally… I’m sorry to interrupt, but we just have a minute left. We wanted to ask you, it’s on a lot of people’s minds. Why impeachment removal of a conservative president in South Korea, but not the United States yet. Talk about the parallels and the differences.

EMANUEL PASTREICH: Well, it’s a fascinating question. And Korea has been relatively transparent, and the Constitutional Court that rendered the ruling, was all made up of appointees by the conservative government. So, I think there was a real responsiveness to the overwhelming anger and outrage among the population. And there were continuous, very well organized demonstrations, peaceful demonstrations. The United States, we hear a lot about impeachment, but the actual process, or the potential, you just don’t really see anything happening, at least that’s my impression.

So, however, the larger geopolitical implications of this shift, because Korea is both divided in North and South, but also conservative, progressive within the country, we still don’t know, and there are some worrisome aspects of this.


「判事の全員一致、米国ではありえず」パストリッチ NNA ASIA 共同通信

image1NNA ASIA アジア経済ニュース






































Emanuel Pastreich, Benjamin Butler & Kim Haesun to speak at Asia Pacific Financial Forum


The Emerging Future Institute will play a substantial role at the Asia Pacific Financial Forum at the Plaza Hotel, March 23-25 with its founder Benjamin Butler, Kim Haesun, President of SunTransGlobe and researcher at Emerging Future Institute, and Emanuel Pastreich, director of the Asia Institute and researcher at the Emerging Future Institute, speaking.


March 22, 2017


Trade conflicts & the new isolationism age  무역충돌과 신고립주의 시대 (통상)


Emanuel Pastreich

10:00-10:30 AM

“The Challenge of the Trump Era: Opportunities and Challenges”

For more information, see

제10회 아시아태평양금융포럼

“世界を脅かすトランプ政権が作っている災難” ハフィントン ポスト

ハフィントン ポスト


2017年 3月 7日




trump japanese

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“한국 정치, 북핵에 ‘돌직구’를 날려라” 경향신문 2017년 2월 7일


“한국 정치, 북핵에 ‘돌직구’를 날려라”

2017년 2월 7일

임마누엘 페스트라이쉬


인정한다. 북한의 핵무기와 첨단 미사일 기술 개발은 지역 안정을 깊숙이 뒤흔들 정도로 위험하다. 그러나 언론에서 끊임없이 떠드는 것은 그 이유 때문만은 아니다. 솔직히 말해서 북한이 한국이나 미국을 상대로 핵무기를 실제로 사용할 가능성은 극도로 낮다. 그건 자살행위나 다름없으며, 어떤 실질적 목적도 달성하지 못한다. 그런데도 언론에서 이런 시나리오가 계속 나오는 이유는 미사일방어 체계를 비롯한 무기 판매에 엄청난 자본이 걸려 있기 때문이다.

북한 핵개발이 위험한 것은 동북아시아 군비 확장을 촉발해 북한뿐 아니라 역내 모든 국가 사이에 군사적 긴장관계가 형성될 수 있기 때문이다. 중국은 단기간에 핵무기를 200기에서 1000기, 심지어 1만기까지 손쉽게 늘릴 수 있고, 일본과 한국 또한 핵무장에 나설 수 있다. ‘핵 억지를 통한 평화’는 신화에나 나올 법한 가상의 개념이다. 모든 국가가 핵무장을 하면 동아시아는 지금보다 훨씬 위험한 지역이 될 것이다. 따라서 한국 정부는 누구도 예상치 못했던 과감한 행보로 한국 나름의 ‘예측불가능성’을 보여줘야 한다.

우선, 북한 핵개발이 가져오는 최대 위험은 역내 군비 확장이라고 ‘돌직구’를 날려야 한다. 그리고 미국이 북한, 중국, 러시아와 함께 진지한 협상에 나서도록 해서 북한이 핵실험을 중단하고 기존 핵무기를 폐기하도록 합리적으로 유도하는 환경을 조성해야 한다. 미국은 북한과의 외교 정상화를 제안해야 한다. 이는 즉시 한반도 긴장상태를 완화할 것이며, 북한이 혹시라도 핵무기를 사용하려는 가능성을 낮출 것이다. 그다음으로 핵확산금지조약 가입국 의무에 따라 미국 또한 완전한 비핵화를 향해 분명하고 검증 가능한 첫 단계로 나아가야 한다. 세계 각국과 미국 국민 다수는 원칙을 지키려는 미국의 노력을 환영할 것이다. 미국이 향후 10년간 핵무기 6800기를 200기 미만으로 감축하겠다고 약속하면 아시아에 엄청난 반향을 일으킬 것이다.

트럼프 행정부 출범 이후 미국 군부 내에서 치열한 권력투쟁이 일어나고 있어 핵무기의 적절한 통제에 관한 우려가 증가하고 있다. 역설적으로 이는 미국의 신속한 핵무기 해체를 요구하기에 최고로 좋은 타이밍이다. 한국은 미국이 안보를 지켜주겠다는 약속에 충실히 임하는 한편, 북한의 핵 공격처럼 가능성 낮은 위협보다 지금 당장 눈앞에 닥치고 가능성도 높은 위협에 집중할 것을 요청해야 한다. 이 과정에서 한국은 미국, 일본과 힘을 합칠 수도 있다. 3국은 사이버 공격과 조직범죄 증가에 통합된 대응을 하고, 드론 및 3D 프린팅을 이용한 신무기의 통제 및 대응 과정에서 힘을 합칠 수 있다.

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Digital Times “Because this year forms the close of a long-term cycle, we need political innovation and participatory politics”

The Digital Times

“Because this year forms the close of a long-term cycle, we need political innovation and participatory politics”

Ye Jeen Soo   

2017-03-02 10:29:49

■ 2017 Restart Korea

Insights into deep-rooted problems in the Korean economy by foreign experts

Interview with Emanuel Pastreich

professor at Kyunghee University’s International Graduate School

Emanuel Pastreich (Korean name, Lee Man-Yeol • 53) Professor at Kyunghee University’s College of International Studies is a scholar who knows Korea better than Koreans. When we asked about problems in Korean education, he spoke of the strengths of traditional Korean education, strengths found in the remarkable spirit of the ethical Korean scholar (seonbi) and the traditional spirit of community. Pastreich majored in classical Chinese literature at Yale University and received a master`s degree from University of Tokyo and a doctoral degree from Harvard University. Considered an outstanding scholar, he speaks Korean, Chinese and Japanese fluently. Little things like the kindness he demonstrated when to female employee who brought the coffee revealed that he has much internalized that traditional Korean tradition of courtesy.

We asked him about direction of Korea after the political disruption of the presidential impeachment trial when he visited the Digital Times on February 23.

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